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On paper, this makes sense: the year is wrapping up, teams want clarity, and leadership needs numbers to plan against.",{"type":19,"attrs":434,"content":435},{"textAlign":21},[436],{"text":437,"type":25},"The problem is that December behaves nothing like the rest of the year.",{"type":19,"attrs":439,"content":440},{"textAlign":21},[441],{"text":442,"type":25},"It’s an anomaly — operationally, financially, and commercially. And when you build a Q1 forecast on top of December data, you inherit all of that distortion.",{"type":19,"attrs":444,"content":445},{"textAlign":21},[446],{"type":447,"attrs":448},"image",{"id":449,"alt":31,"src":450,"title":31,"source":31,"copyright":31,"meta_data":451},213259299470813,"https:\u002F\u002Fa.storyblok.com\u002Ff\u002F290492147191527\u002F2048x1152\u002Fb53e962b30\u002Fthe-problem-with-q1-forecasts.png",{},{"type":384,"attrs":453,"content":454},{"level":422,"textAlign":21},[455],{"text":456,"type":25,"marks":457},"Why December skews your numbers",[458],{"type":392},{"type":384,"attrs":460,"content":462},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},3,[463],{"text":464,"type":25,"marks":465},"1. Holiday sales distort demand",[466],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":468,"content":469},{"textAlign":21},[470],{"text":471,"type":25},"For many businesses, December demand is artificially inflated by holiday promotions, gifting behaviour, or year-end buying cycles. For others, sales dip as customers pause spending.",{"type":19,"attrs":473,"content":474},{"textAlign":21},[475],{"text":476,"type":25},"Either way, December demand patterns rarely reflect how customers behave in January, February, or March.",{"type":384,"attrs":478,"content":479},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},[480],{"text":481,"type":25,"marks":482},"2. Returns and cancellations hit in January",[483],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":485,"content":486},{"textAlign":21},[487],{"text":488,"type":25},"Revenue booked in December often doesn’t stick.",{"type":19,"attrs":490,"content":491},{"textAlign":21},[492],{"text":493,"type":25},"Product returns, subscription cancellations, failed payments, and refunds typically peak in early January — meaning your December performance looks stronger than the reality you’ll be dealing with in Q1.",{"type":384,"attrs":495,"content":496},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},[497],{"text":498,"type":25,"marks":499},"3. Cashflow reality lags behind revenue",[500],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":502,"content":503},{"textAlign":21},[504],{"text":505,"type":25},"December invoices don’t usually clear until early or mid-January. Late payments, supplier invoices, and payroll adjustments all land after the year has technically closed.",{"type":19,"attrs":507,"content":508},{"textAlign":21},[509],{"text":510,"type":25},"Until those clear, you don’t have a true picture of your cash position or burn rate.",{"type":384,"attrs":512,"content":513},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},[514],{"text":515,"type":25,"marks":516},"4. Consumer behaviour resets after the first week",[517],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":519,"content":520},{"textAlign":21},[521],{"text":522,"type":25},"By the second week of January, customer behaviour changes again.",{"type":19,"attrs":524,"content":525},{"textAlign":21},[526],{"text":527,"type":25},"Returns are processed. Budgets tighten. “No-spend January” kicks in. Marketing performance shifts as CPCs and CPAs rebalance post-holidays.",{"type":19,"attrs":529,"content":530},{"textAlign":21},[531],{"text":532,"type":25},"In other words: the market finally starts behaving normally again.",{"type":19,"attrs":534},{"textAlign":21},{"type":384,"attrs":536,"content":537},{"level":422,"textAlign":21},[538],{"text":539,"type":25,"marks":540},"Why mid-January is the moment to re-forecast",[541],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":543,"content":544},{"textAlign":21},[545],{"text":546,"type":25},"Mid-January should be treated as the real start of the financial year for planning purposes. ",{"type":19,"attrs":548,"content":549},{"textAlign":21},[550],{"text":551,"type":25},"We see the same pattern every year. Businesses go into January with numbers that feel solid, but they’re built on a December that behaves nothing like the rest of the year. ",{"type":19,"attrs":553,"content":554},{"textAlign":21},[555],{"text":556,"type":25},"By mid-January, you finally have enough real data to see how Q1 will actually perform. That’s the moment to update your revenue, cashflow and workforce plans.",{"type":19,"attrs":558,"content":559},{"textAlign":21},[560,562,566],{"text":561,"type":25},"By around ",{"text":563,"type":25,"marks":564},"15 January",[565],{"type":392},{"text":567,"type":25},", several critical things have happened:",{"type":569,"content":570},"bullet_list",[571,579,586,593],{"type":572,"content":573},"list_item",[574],{"type":19,"attrs":575,"content":576},{"textAlign":21},[577],{"text":578,"type":25},"Holiday sales data has settled",{"type":572,"content":580},[581],{"type":19,"attrs":582,"content":583},{"textAlign":21},[584],{"text":585,"type":25},"Returns and cancellations are visible",{"type":572,"content":587},[588],{"type":19,"attrs":589,"content":590},{"textAlign":21},[591],{"text":592,"type":25},"December invoices and late payments have cleared",{"type":572,"content":594},[595],{"type":19,"attrs":596,"content":597},{"textAlign":21},[598],{"text":599,"type":25},"January consumer behaviour has stabilised",{"type":19,"attrs":601,"content":602},{"textAlign":21},[603],{"text":604,"type":25},"This is the point where forecasts stop being theoretical — and start reflecting reality.",{"type":19,"attrs":606,"content":607},{"textAlign":21},[608,610,614],{"text":609,"type":25},"That’s why we believe ",{"text":611,"type":25,"marks":612},"National Re-forecasting Day belongs in mid-January",[613],{"type":392},{"text":615,"type":25},".",{"type":19,"attrs":617},{"textAlign":21},{"type":19,"attrs":619,"content":620},{"textAlign":21},[621],{"type":447,"attrs":622},{"id":623,"alt":31,"src":624,"title":31,"source":31,"copyright":31,"meta_data":625},213259483721220,"https:\u002F\u002Fa.storyblok.com\u002Ff\u002F290492147191527\u002F2048x1152\u002Fe6d7f96860\u002Fthe-rolling-forecast-gap-in-financial-modelling.png",{"size":379},{"type":384,"attrs":627,"content":628},{"level":422,"textAlign":21},[629],{"text":630,"type":25,"marks":631},"The rolling forecast gap",[632],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":634,"content":635},{"textAlign":21},[636],{"text":637,"type":25},"Most finance leaders already know this in theory. Rolling forecasting is widely recommended as best practice. It’s associated with better decision-making, greater agility, and fewer surprises. And yet, in practice, very few organisations do it consistently.",{"type":19,"attrs":639,"content":640},{"textAlign":21},[641],{"text":642,"type":25},"Why? Because most forecasting processes are still built on spreadsheets.",{"type":19,"attrs":644,"content":645},{"textAlign":21},[646],{"text":647,"type":25},"That creates a familiar set of problems:",{"type":569,"content":649},[650,657,664,671,678],{"type":572,"content":651},[652],{"type":19,"attrs":653,"content":654},{"textAlign":21},[655],{"text":656,"type":25},"Forecasts take days (or weeks) to update",{"type":572,"content":658},[659],{"type":19,"attrs":660,"content":661},{"textAlign":21},[662],{"text":663,"type":25},"Version control becomes chaotic",{"type":572,"content":665},[666],{"type":19,"attrs":667,"content":668},{"textAlign":21},[669],{"text":670,"type":25},"Departments work in silos",{"type":572,"content":672},[673],{"type":19,"attrs":674,"content":675},{"textAlign":21},[676],{"text":677,"type":25},"Data is static by the time it’s reviewed",{"type":572,"content":679},[680],{"type":19,"attrs":681,"content":682},{"textAlign":21},[683],{"text":684,"type":25},"Leaders default back to annual budgets because they’re easier to manage",{"type":19,"attrs":686,"content":687},{"textAlign":21},[688],{"text":689,"type":25},"The problem isn’t that leaders don’t believe in rolling forecasting. Most of them do. The problem is that their spreadsheet-based process makes it slow, manual, and painful. You can’t update a forecast weekly if doing it once a month already takes three days.",{"type":19,"attrs":691},{"textAlign":21},{"type":384,"attrs":693,"content":694},{"level":422,"textAlign":21},[695],{"text":696,"type":25,"marks":697},"What to check on National Re-forecasting Day",[698],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":700,"content":701},{"textAlign":21},[702],{"text":703,"type":25},"Re-forecasting doesn’t have to mean rebuilding everything from scratch.",{"type":19,"attrs":705,"content":706},{"textAlign":21},[707],{"text":708,"type":25},"On National Re-forecasting Day, we recommend focusing on five key data points that most often change after December.",{"type":384,"attrs":710,"content":711},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},[712],{"text":713,"type":25,"marks":714},"1. Return rates",[715],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":717,"content":718},{"textAlign":21},[719],{"text":720,"type":25},"Post-holiday returns can materially change your January revenue picture. Make sure your forecast reflects what actually sticks.",{"type":384,"attrs":722,"content":723},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},[724],{"text":725,"type":25,"marks":726},"2. Inventory levels",[727],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":729,"content":730},{"textAlign":21},[731],{"text":732,"type":25},"Are you overstocked after the holiday rush? Excess inventory can tie up cash and force discounting earlier than planned.",{"type":384,"attrs":734,"content":735},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},[736],{"text":737,"type":25,"marks":738},"3. Marketing performance resets",[739],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":741,"content":742},{"textAlign":21},[743],{"text":744,"type":25},"January acquisition costs often shift significantly compared to December. Update your assumptions around CPCs, CPAs, and conversion rates.",{"type":384,"attrs":746,"content":747},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},[748],{"text":749,"type":25,"marks":750},"4. Cashflow position",[751],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":753,"content":754},{"textAlign":21},[755],{"text":756,"type":25},"Once December invoices and late payments have cleared, reassess your true cash position and burn rate.",{"type":384,"attrs":758,"content":759},{"level":461,"textAlign":21},[760],{"text":761,"type":25,"marks":762},"5. Headcount costs",[763],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":765,"content":766},{"textAlign":21},[767],{"text":768,"type":25},"January payroll often includes changes to pensions, national insurance, benefits, or new hires. These adjustments can meaningfully affect your runway.",{"type":19,"attrs":770},{"textAlign":21},{"type":384,"attrs":772,"content":773},{"level":422,"textAlign":21},[774],{"text":775,"type":25,"marks":776},"Re-forecasting shouldn’t be a quarterly panic",[777],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":779,"content":780},{"textAlign":21},[781],{"text":782,"type":25},"The goal of National Re-forecasting Day isn’t to create another one-off finance ritual.",{"type":19,"attrs":784,"content":785},{"textAlign":21},[786],{"text":787,"type":25},"It’s to highlight a bigger shift: forecasting should be frequent, lightweight, and habitual.",{"type":19,"attrs":789,"content":790},{"textAlign":21},[791],{"text":792,"type":25},"When forecasts are updated regularly:",{"type":569,"content":794},[795,802,809,816],{"type":572,"content":796},[797],{"type":19,"attrs":798,"content":799},{"textAlign":21},[800],{"text":801,"type":25},"They become easier to maintain",{"type":572,"content":803},[804],{"type":19,"attrs":805,"content":806},{"textAlign":21},[807],{"text":808,"type":25},"Accuracy improves over time",{"type":572,"content":810},[811],{"type":19,"attrs":812,"content":813},{"textAlign":21},[814],{"text":815,"type":25},"Teams can focus in detail on the next 30–60 days",{"type":572,"content":817},[818],{"type":19,"attrs":819,"content":820},{"textAlign":21},[821],{"text":822,"type":25},"Uncertainty is pushed further into the future, where it belongs",{"type":19,"attrs":824,"content":825},{"textAlign":21},[826],{"text":827,"type":25},"Or, as we like to put it: Rolling forecasting shouldn’t be a quarterly panic — it should be more like brushing your teeth.",{"type":19,"attrs":829},{"textAlign":21},{"type":384,"attrs":831,"content":832},{"level":422,"textAlign":21},[833],{"text":834,"type":25,"marks":835},"How Kaleidoscope supports this shift",[836],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":838,"content":839},{"textAlign":21},[840],{"text":841,"type":25},"Kaleidoscope is built to make rolling forecasting practical, not theoretical. Instead of rebuilding spreadsheets, leaders can pull in the latest sales data, adjust assumptions, and re-run financial models in minutes — not days. That makes mid-January re-forecasting faster. And it makes weekly or monthly re-forecasting possible the rest of the year.",{"type":19,"attrs":843,"content":844},{"textAlign":21},[845],{"text":846,"type":25},"Because the more often you forecast, the easier — and more accurate — it becomes.",{"type":19,"attrs":848},{"textAlign":21},{"type":384,"attrs":850,"content":851},{"level":422,"textAlign":21},[852],{"text":853,"type":25,"marks":854},"National Re-forecasting Day is our reminder that good planning starts with reality, not tradition.",[855],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":857,"content":858},{"textAlign":21},[859],{"text":860,"type":25},"If your Q1 forecast hasn’t been revisited since December, mid-January is the day to fix it.",{"type":19,"attrs":862},{"textAlign":21},{"type":384,"attrs":864,"content":866},{"level":865,"textAlign":21},4,[867],{"text":868,"type":25,"marks":869},"About Kaleidoscope",[870],{"type":392},{"type":19,"attrs":872,"content":873},{"textAlign":21},[874],{"text":875,"type":25},"Kaleidoscope Solutions™ is a financial modelling platform that builds a true structural representation of a business — from existing spreadsheets, in minutes. Powered by AI you can rely on, it creates a model businesses can interrogate, defend, and evolve with confidence, rather than a formula-based approximation. Built for finance today, with the same foundation designed to support every team that models — sales, operations, and planning — as it moves towards commercial launch.",{"type":19,"attrs":877},{"textAlign":21},{"type":19,"attrs":879},{"textAlign":21},"Insights & Analysis","blog","6","Every January, thousands of businesses head into Q1 with approved budgets and plans already in motion. And yet — they are already out of date.",{"id":885,"alt":886,"name":31,"focus":31,"title":31,"source":31,"filename":887,"copyright":31,"fieldtype":345,"meta_data":888,"is_external_url":43},205801731640713,"david","https:\u002F\u002Fa.storyblok.com\u002Ff\u002F290492147191527\u002F300x300\u002F7e547d601d\u002Fdavid-headshot.webp",{"alt":886,"size":889,"title":31,"source":31,"copyright":31},"300x300","2026-01-15 00:00","national-re-forecasting-day","blog\u002Fnational-re-forecasting-day",-260,[],148842314516910,"450abbbb-101e-47da-a37a-8a9b941bdd56","2026-08-26T14:35:40.876Z",[],1788445485647]